Trump's Political Crisis May Bring Short-Term Gains for China but Long-Term Challenges Loom

Trump's political crisis could bring short-term gains for China, but significant challenges remain in the long run

November 5

Analysts say that the Republican Party's loss under President Donald Trump in the US midterm elections could bring short-term benefits for China, but in the long run, it may face unpredictable challenges.

Now that the Democrats have gained control of Congress, President Trump, who is facing domestic crises, may find himself more in need of securing a trade agreement with China at the upcoming APEC and G20 summits.

Experts say this could present a short-term opportunity for Beijing to gain the upper hand in trade negotiations.

Former Chinese Foreign Ministry official Shen Weijun also said that whichever president succeeds Trump may take a tougher stance toward China, so even if the current situation can be maintained for about another two years, it would still be beneficial for China.

However, there are also concerns for China. A Democrat-controlled legislature could pressure Trump to resume the sale of US$14 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan. Since the Taiwan issue is China's main red line, this matter could heighten tensions in bilateral relations.

In addition, Trump may take more aggressive and unpredictable actions in foreign policy to recover from his weakening position in domestic politics. In particular, if the Iran war escalates further, global oil prices could rise and even affect China's energy security.

On the other hand, analysts assess that China may try to use its influence over Russia and North Korea to extract other political concessions from Trump.

Under the current circumstances, Trump's political defeat could be an opportunity for China in the short term, but analysts assess that due to Congress's tough stance toward China and the policies of the incoming US administration, it could become more difficult for China in the long run.

Ref & Photo: Reuters

MyoTaw News Channel