MyoTaw: Storm May Form in Philippine Sea; Heavy Rain Likely in Rakhine and Chin States

A storm may form in the Philippine Sea, with very heavy rain possible in Rakhine and Chin States

July 21

According to weather forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and ICON models, meteorologist U Win Naing has predicted that a strong storm could develop in the sea north/northeast of Luzon Island in the Philippines.

Based on the ECMWF and ICON model forecasts, the storm is expected to move northwestward and make landfall in southern China and northern Vietnam.

According to the GFS model, the storm's center is expected to split into two systems—one near the Chinese coast and another in the eastern Philippine Sea—moving as a broader cyclonic system.

On July 24 and 25, only normal monsoon currents are expected in the Bay of Bengal. However, according to the ICON model's forecast, a new low-pressure area/trough may begin forming in the northern Bay of Bengal (off the coast of Bangladesh/Rakhine) around July 27.

Due to the combination of a new trough in the northern Bay of Bengal and strong monsoon winds around July 27, Rakhine State (Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, Thandwe) and Chin State could receive 200 mm to 300 mm of rainfall within three days, leading to very heavy rain.

Ayeyarwady Region, Yangon Region, Bago Region, Mon State, Kayin State, and Tanintharyi Region are within the path of strong monsoon winds, so scattered rain is expected, with heavy downpours and strong winds near the coast and the Gulf of Martaban. Rainfall of 100 mm to 200 mm is possible within three days.

In Sagaing Region, Kachin State, and Shan State, due to the monsoon trough and the westward movement of the storm's momentum, widespread rain is expected in inland mountainous areas.

Meteorologist U Win Naing has predicted moderate rain in Naypyidaw, Magway Region, and Mandalay Region, with thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, evening, and night due to cumulonimbus clouds.

MyoTaw News Channel

#myotawnpt

#Myotaw