MyoTaw: El Niño Strengthens, Rainy Season May End Earlier Than Normal

El Niño conditions are strengthening and the rainy season may end earlier than usual

July 21

Starting from July 2026, El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen, with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rising significantly through January 2027, according to forecasts by meteorologist U Win Naing, citing statements from global weather centers.

With a potential increase of up to 2.78°C by November 2026, the region may experience a Strong El Niño event, which could lead to record-high global temperatures and extreme weather conditions.

According to forecasts from Meteoblue, a globally renowned weather and climate forecasting technology company, between July 24 and 25, central and northern Myanmar, as well as northern Thailand, may experience dense cloud cover and heavy rainfall over a short period due to converging low-pressure systems.

Meteorologist U Win Naing has warned that due to the onset of El Niño, monsoon wind flows may become more intermittent or weaker than usual, and with high pressure in some areas, localized heavy rain and flash floods could occur.

In terms of long-term climate forecasts, during the late rainy season from August to October 2026, the Mekong region of Southeast Asia—including Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia—and island regions such as Indonesia and the Philippines face a very high likelihood of below-normal rainfall, and the monsoon season may end earlier than usual.

During the winter period from November 2026 to January 2027, when El Niño is expected to peak, dryness will intensify across the entire region, potentially leading to shortages of irrigation and drinking water. Temperatures are also expected to be significantly higher than normal. Particularly during the transition from the late rainy season to winter, the weather may feel hotter and drier than usual, with reduced winter cold.

Meteorologist U Win Naing has analyzed that, by nature of El Niño years, drier regions tend to become even drier, while rainy areas may experience sudden heavy downpours and brief intense rainfall, meaning risks of flash floods and landslides could persist until the rainy season ends.

MyoTaw News Channel